Apr 1, 2010 12:00 PM

The Real Allure of Emerging Markets

There's little relationship between country-level gross domestic product growth and local stock market returns. A better approach: identify companies that will benefit most and will pass on those benefits to investors

The conventional investment wisdom of “going where the growth is” would suggest increasing equity allocations to emerging markets. But our research shows that there's little relationship between country-level gross domestic product (GDP) growth and local stock market returns. The best way to take advantage of the developing world's growth is through bottom-up research that identifies companies that are most likely to benefit and that are priced attractively.

For decades, investors have been fascinated and attracted by the promise of emerging stock markets. Despite chronic volatility and, at times, breathtaking market plunges, the “rising tide” of economic growth in developing countries has been a compelling story. With economists predicting that growth in developing countries could outpace that of developed economies by as much as 200 percent to 300 percent over the next several decades, that story is more compelling than ever. (See “Future Emerging Markets,” p. 37.)

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